South Africa’s G20 Presidency Amid Trump’s Polarizing Return

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House on January 20, the G20 has reached a critical juncture. The forum is likely to become a battleground for the clashing interests of great powers, especially as South Africa takes over its presidency in 2025. This shift presents a grand stage for geopolitical drama, which could at any moment redefine the relevance of the forum in a rapidly polarizing world. As BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - along with their expanded bloc, gain economic influence while the G7 struggles to maintain its dominance, the G20 risks becoming a theater of struggle between the Global North and the Global South.

 

The numbers tell a compelling story of shifting power. In 2024, the expanded BRICS bloc, which includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, accounted for over $30 trillion, or about 29% of global GDP. Meanwhile, the G7 - comprising the U.S., Canada, Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, and Italy - still holds the largest combined share at $45 trillion, or 43% of global GDP. However, the trajectory clearly favors BRICS.

 

While Germany and Japan recorded growth rates of 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively, India and China saw growth rates of 6.8% and 4.6%, respectively. This signals a shift in the global economic center of gravity toward the Global South. This economic transformation is fueling the growing assertiveness of BRICS nations. Calls for alternatives to the U.S. dollar, such as Brazil’s push for a South American common currency and Russia’s call for new payment methods, symbolize a broader desire to break free from Western financial dominance. These initiatives challenge the very foundation of the G20, which has historically been dominated by Western interests.

 

Enter Donald Trump. His strident rhetoric and protectionist policies are expected to deepen the existing divides. His threats of 100% tariffs on those pursuing alternatives to the dollar are as much economic measures as they are a declaration of a new ideological cold war. At this moment of heightened tension, South Africa’s presidency of the G20 becomes pivotal. As the sole African member of both BRICS and the G20, South Africa bears the dual responsibility of representing the hopes of the Global South while mediating with the Global North. The weight of this "double hat" sits precariously on Pretoria's shoulders. Whether South Africa can navigate this polarized landscape, or if it will be drawn into the vortex of global competition, remains to be seen.

 

The stakes for the G20 could not be higher. Originally conceived as a platform for addressing shared global challenges, the forum’s ability to function depends on its capacity to foster consensus among its diverse members. Yet, as BRICS nations seek to reform global governance and the G7 clings to its diminishing dominance, consensus seems increasingly elusive. With Trump adopting combative policies, these divisions are likely to widen as emerging economies pivot to regional alliances rather than rallying under the G20 umbrella. This fragmentation is epitomized by the growing economic rivalry between BRICS and the G7.

 

While the G7's share of global GDP remains larger, the higher growth rates of BRICS countries are slowly closing the gap. This economic dynamism lends legitimacy to the calls for systemic reform being made by emerging economies.

 

Under South Africa’s leadership, the G20 could act as a bridge, bringing these two competing blocs together to address globally relevant issues such as climate change, inequality, and economic instability. Achieving this goal will require subtle diplomacy and a willingness to challenge entrenched powers. However, Trump's presidency complicates this vision. His penchant for international unilateralism and disdain for multilateral forums undermine the effectiveness of the G20. Punitive tariffs on BRICS countries and efforts to undermine their financial sovereignty - as Trump appears intent on doing - only push them closer toward forming alternative groupings. This could leave the G20 internally crippled, unable to tackle the very challenges that justified its creation.

 

Yet, there is another possible scenario. This moment of crisis could catalyze a transformation in global governance. South Africa’s presidency offers a unique opportunity to amplify the voice of the Global South and press for reforms that would make the G20 more representative and inclusive. By prioritizing dialogue and fostering collaboration, South Africa could reposition the G20’s role in a multipolar world. This task will require courage, vision, and the resolve to challenge the deep-seated structural inequalities that have long defined the global order.

 

Unless the G20 can iron out these paradoxical paths, it risks sliding into irrelevance, leaving the world without a forum for collective action. On the other hand, the current tensions could spark creativity, as emerging economies press for a new paradigm of international cooperation. This shift could reshape not only the G20 but also the far-reaching architecture of global governance.

 

With Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency and South Africa assuming the G20 presidency, the world stands at a crossroads. The stark challenge for the G20 is how to bridge the divide between BRICS and the G7 - or risk being torn apart by these centrifugal forces. The answers to these questions will not only determine the future of the forum but also shape the course of global politics for years to come. At this moment of high stakes, the G20 is more than a stage - it is the battlefield where the future of multilateralism will be decided.

 

Vhahangwele Tsotetsi is the CEO of Democracy Elect Group, the founder and Chairman of Project YouthSA, and a 200 Young South Africans Mail & Guardian 2022 winner.

 

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